UTILIZATION OF HOT SPOT ANALYSIS IN THE DETECTION OF SPATIAL DETERMINANTS AND CLUSTERS OF THE SPANISH FLU MORTALITY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.2298/IJGI2003289LKeywords:
historical demography, mortality spatial patterns, hot spot analysis, Valjevo SrezAbstract
The Spanish flu appeared at the end of the First World War and spread around the world in three waves: spring-summer in 1918, which was mild; autumn fatal wave, in the same year; and winter wave in 1919, which also had great consequences. From the United States of America, as the cradle of its origin, the Spanish flu spread to all the inhabited continents, and it did not bypass Serbia either. Research on the Spanish flu, as the deadliest and most widespread pandemic in the human history, was mostly based on statistical researches. The development of the geographic information systems and spatial analyses has enabled the implementation of the information of location in existing researches, allowing the identification of the spatial patterns of infectious diseases. The subject of this paper is the spatial patterns of the share of deaths from the Spanish flu in the total population in Valjevo Srez (in Western Serbia), at the settlement level, and their determination by the geographical characteristics of the studied area—the average altitude and the distance of the settlement from the center of the Srez. This paper adopted hot spot analysis, based on Gi* statistic, and the results indicated pronounced spatial disparities (spatial grouping of values), for all the studied parameters. The conclusions derived from the studying of historical spatial patterns of infectious diseases and mortality can be applied as a platform for defining measures in the case of an epidemic outbreak with similar characteristics.
Article metrics
References
Anušić, N. (2015). U sjeni Velikog rata: pandemija Španjolske gripe 1918–1919 u sjevernoj Hrvatskoj [In the shadow of the Great War: the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918–1919 in northern Croatia]. Zagreb, Croatia: Srednja Europa.
Chowell, G., Bettencourt, L., Johnson, N., Alonso, V., & Viboud, A. (2007). The 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in England and Wales: spatial patterns in transmissibility and mortality impact. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 275, 501–509. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2007.1477
Chowell, G., Simonsen, L., Flores, J., Miller, M. A., & Viboud, C. (2014). Death patterns during the 1918 influenza pandemic in Chile. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 20(11), 1803–1811. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2011.130632
Chowell, G., Viboud, C., Simonsen, L., Miller, M. A., & Acuna-Soto, R. (2010). Mortality patterns associated with the 1918 influenza pandemic in Mexico: evidence for a spring herald wave and lack of preexisting immunity in older populations. The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 202(4), 567–575. https://doi.org/10.1086/654897
Cilek, L. (2019). Putting Spain back in Spanish influenza quantifying the timing and mortality impact in Madrid of the 1918-1921 pandemic through spatial, demographic, and social lenses. (Unpublished doctoral dissertation). Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona.
Contrast d.o.o. (2016). PlanPlus (Version 1.4.1) [Mobile application software]. Retrieved from https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=rs.planplus&hl=en&gl=US
Dragić, M. (1980). Zdravstvene prilike u Beogradu za vreme okupacije u Prvom svetskom ratu i Španski grip 1918–1919 godine [Health conditions in Belgrade during the occupation in the First World War and the Spanish flu in 1918–1919]. Srpski arhiv za celokupno lekarstvo, 108(9), 969–974.
Đenić, M. (1985). Epidemije tifusa i španske groznice na Zlatiboru u vreme Prvog svetskog rata [Epidemics of typhus and Spanish flu on Zlatibor during the First World War]. Užički zbornik, 14, 151–164.
Esri. (2020). ArcGIS Pro (version 2.5) [Computer software]. (2020). Retrieved from https://arcgis.pro/download-arcgis-pro-2-5/
Esri. (n.d.). How Hot Spot Analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*) works. Retrieved from https://pro.arcgis.com/en/pro-app/tool-reference/spatial-statistics/h-how-hot-spot-analysis-getis-ord-gi-spatial-stati.htm
Gavrilović, Ž. (1995). Pandemija španske groznice u Šajkajškoj 1918–1919 [Spanish flu pandemic in Šajkaška 1918–1919]. Medicinski pregled, 7−8, 277–280.
Getis, A., & Ord, J. K. (1996). Local spatial statistics: An overview. In P. Longley & M. Batty (Eds.), Spatial Analysis: Modeling in A GIS Environment (pp. 261–277). New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons.
Google LLC. (2019). Google Earth (Version 7.3.2.5776) [Mobile application software]. Retrieved from https://downloads.digitaltrends.com/google-earth/windows
Grantz, K. H., Rane, M. S., Salje, H., Glass, G. E., Schachterle, S. E., & Cummings, D. A. (2016). Disparities in influenza mortality and transmission related to sociodemographic factors within Chicago in the pandemic of 1918. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113(48), 13839–13844. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1612838113
Hutinec, G. (2006). Odjeci epidemije “španjolske gripe” 1918. godine u hrvatskoj javnosti [Echoes of the Spanish flu epidemic in 1918 in the Croatian public]. Radovi Zavoda za hrvatsku povijest Filozofskoga fakulteta Sveučilišta u Zagrebu, 38(1), 227−242. Retrieved from https://hrcak.srce.hr/51841
Jiang, S., Zhang, J., Jin, J., Zhang, D., & Wang, T. (2011). Spatial analysis of Influenza AH1N1 and evaluation of risk factors in Changsha City based on GIS. In The 19th International Conference on Geoinformatics (pp. 1−5). https://doi.org/10.1109/GeoInformatics.2011.5981050
Krivošejev, V. (2020). Prilog proučavanju pandemije španske groznice u selima valjevskog kraja [A contribution to the study of the Spanish flu pandemic in the villages of the Valjevo region]. Glasnik istorijskog arhiva Valjevo, 54, 57−91.
Krivošejev, V. (in press). Posledice pandemije Španska groznice u Valjevskom srezu 1918–1919 [The consequences Spanish flu in Valjevo Srez 1918–1919]. Istorija 20 veka, 1.
Lović Obradović, S. (2019). Model prostornog ispoljavanja demografskih procesa u Srbiji [Model of spatial manifestation of demographic processes in Serbia]. (Unpublished doctoral dissertation). Geographical Faculty, Unuversity of Belgrade, Belgrade.
Lović Obradović, S., & Vojković, G. (in press). The Impact of Spatial-Demographic Disparities on Fertility Variations in Serbian Municipalities – An Example of Hidden Content Research. In M. Krevs (Ed.), Hidden Geographies. Berlin, Germany: Springer.
Milenković, T. (2007). Trstenik i okolina u Prvom svetskom ratu 1914–1918 [Trstenik and its surroundings in the First World War 1914–1918]. Belgrade, Serbia: Institut za savremenu istoriju.
Opšta državna statistika. (1932). Definitivni rezultati popisa stanovništva od 31. januara 1921 [Definitive results of the census of January 31, 1921]. Sarajevo, Yugoslavia: Državna štamparija. Retrieved from https://www.scribd.com/doc/294110449/Definitivni-Rezultati-Popisa-Stanovnistva-Od-31-Januara-1921-God
Popović, Lj. (2000). Popis stanovništva valjevskog okruga u I svetskom ratu [Census of the population of Valjevo district in the First World War]. Glasnik Istorijskog arhiva u Valjevu, 34, 159–170. Retrieved from http://istorijskiarhiv.rs/sites/default/files/PODACI/materijali/GALASNIK%2034/Glasnik%2034.pdf
Prasannakuma, V., Vijith, H., Charutha, R., & Geetha, N. (2011). Spatio-Temporal Clustering of Road Accidents: GIS Based Analysis and Assessment. Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences, 21, 317–325. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2011.07.020
Radusin, M. (2006). Španska groznica [Spanish flu]. Vox Medici, 6, 36–38.
Radusin, M. (2012a). The Spanish Flu: Part I – the first wave. Vojnosanitetski Pregled, 69(9), 812–817. Retrieved from https://www.rastko.rs/cms/files/books/5218e83f2a753
Radusin, M. (2012b). The Spanish Flu: Part II – the second and the third wave. Vojnosanitetski Pregled, 69(10), 917–927. Retrieved from http://www.vma.mod.gov.rs/vsp-10_2012-1.pdf
Reyes, O., Lee, E., Sah, P., Viboud, C., Chandra, S., & Bansal, S. (2018). Spatiotemporal Patterns and Diffusion of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in British India. American Journal of Epidemiology, 187(12), 2550–2560. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwy209
Tobler, W. R. (1970). A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region. Economic Geography, 46, 234–240. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/stable/143141?origin=JSTOR-pdf&seq=1
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2020 Journal of the Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić” SASA
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
