ENHANCING WIND ENERGY PRODUCTION ESTIMATION OVER MONTENEGRO USING MODELED AND OBSERVED WIND SPEEDS AND SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERNS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.2298/IJGI2501033ZKeywords:
wind power, wind rose, synoptic situation, WRF NMM, forecast verification, Krnovo (Nikšić)Abstract
This study analyses the wind conditions over complex terrain and evaluates wind resources based on synoptic weather patterns. The wind direction showed a pronounced north-south bi-directionality. The cut-out speed occurs infrequently and is mainly limited to the north-east and south-south-east winds. The observed wind speeds at location Krnovo (Nikšić) verified the wind forecast of the Weather Research and Forecasting Non-Hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (WRF NMM). The model slightly underestimated the lower average hourly wind speeds; the errors were greatest during the winter season. The best forecast was for one day ahead. The correlation coefficients between the observed and predicted winds at 90 m height for one, two, and three days ahead were 0.85, 0.83, and 0.82, respectively. The synoptic situations were analyzed to identify the underlying weather patterns that favor maximum and minimum energy production lasting most of the day. Maximum energy production was associated with a deep trough over western Europe extending in a northwest-southeаst direction and a pronounced meridional meandering jet stream. A ridge or anticyclone over the Balkan Peninsula, a more or less zonal jet stream and strong warm air advection over Montenegro characterized the atmosphere during the periods of minimum energy production. Together with reliable wind forecasts, these results can improve the use of renewable energies in the future and make them more efficient.
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