SPATIO-TEMPORAL PATTERN OF TROPICAL CYCLONES: THE CASE OF CYCLONES OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Authors

  • Bibi Hafsa Jahangirnagar University, Department of Geography and Environment, Savar, Dhaka
  • Raju Ahmed Jahangirnagar University, Department of Geography and Environment, Savar, Dhaka
  • Rocky Kumar Jahangirnagar University, Department of Geography and Environment, Savar, Dhaka

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.2298/IJGI2103213H

Keywords:

tropical cyclone, coastal region, cyclonic magnitude, cyclonic trend and pattern, Bangladesh

Abstract

For the last few decades, the generalized pattern of tropical cyclones has gone through an unstable system transformation in the global changing climatic scenario. Thus, the broad aim of this research work was to explore the spatio-temporal changing pattern of tropical cyclones in the basin of the Bay of Bengal between 1985 and 2019. Cyclone track information data have been collected from Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) server and Bangladesh Meteorological Department. The loss and damage statistics has been collected from different published sources. Geographical distributional characteristics such as mean center and standard directional distribution have been explored using the spatial statistical tool of ArcMap. The mean geographic center has been identified near the district of Bhola and Patuakhali. The cyclonic occurrences in the research area are oriented north–west to south–east according to standard directional distribution. Hot spot analysis was used to identify the most affected parts in the study area and found that there are no significant hotspots, but the distribution pattern is rather random. However, there are two minor concentration zones in the study area, one near Barguna and another one near Sandwip coast. SPSS software was also used here to analyze the relationship between cyclonic events and the loss/damage scenarios of the study area. The relationship between cyclonic velocity and damage of life and livelihood showed a strong correlation of .804 with a significance level of 99% (p<.01). Random cyclonic trends and patterns indicate a change in this region's climatic variability over the past 35 years.

Article metrics

References

Alam, A., Sammonds, P., & Ahmed, B. (2020). Cyclone risk assessment of the Cox’s Bazar district and Rohingya refugee camps in southeast Bangladesh. Science of the Total Environment, 704, 135360. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135360

Artimo, K. (1995). Spatial Analysis in Geographical Information System: A Data Model Oriented Approach. In Proceedings of the 17th International Cartographic Conference (pp. 1304–1313). Retrieved from https://icaci.org/files/documents/ICC_proceedings/ICC1995/PDF/Cap247.pdf

Asian Disaster Reduction Center. (2007). Bangladesh: Tropical Cyclone: 2007/11/15. Disaster Information. Retrieved from https://www.adrc.asia/view_disaster_en.php?lang=&KEY=1111

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. (2011). Bangladesh Population and Housing Census, Statistics and informatics division, Ministry of Planning, Bangladesh. Retrieved from http://www.bbs.gov.bd/site/page/47856ad0-7e1c-4aab-bd78-892733bc06eb/Population-and-Housing-Census

Bangladesh Meteorological Department. (2019). Historical Cyclones. Retrieved from http://live3.bmd.gov.bd/p/Historical-Cyclones/

Bangladesh Tropical Storm/Cyclone - Disaster Summary Sheet (8 April 2018). (2018). Retrieved from https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/180409%20Start%20Fund%20Tropical%20Storm-Cyclone%20Disaster%20Summary%20Sheet.pdf

Banglapedia. (2020). Cyclone. In National Encyclopedia of Bangladesh. Retrieved from https://en.banglapedia.org/index.php/Cyclone

Banglapedia. (2021). Landuse. In National Encyclopedia of Bangladesh. Retrieved from https://en.banglapedia.org/index.php/Landuse

Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services. (2016). Technical Study for Mapping of Potential Greenbelt Zone in the Coastal Regions of Bangladesh. Climate Resilient Participatory Afforestation and Reforestation Project. https://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/938851521827876455/pdf/Final-Report-Technical-Study-for-Greenbelt-CEGIS-February-2017.pdf

Chowdhury, A. M. R., Bhuyia, A. U., Choudhury, A. Y., & Sen, R. (1993). The Bangladesh Cyclone of 1991: Why So Many People Died. Disasters, 17(4), 291–304. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7717.1993.tb00503.x

Dasgupta, S., Huq, M., Khan, Z. H., Ahmed, M. M. Z., Mukherjee, N., Khan, M., & Pandey, K. D. (2010). Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Cyclones in a Changing Climate: Potential Damages and Adaptation Cost. (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5280). Retrieved from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1596490

Emergency Events Database. (2019). Tropical Cyclone database of Bay of Bengal. Retrieved from https://public.emdat.be/

ESRI. (2005a). How Spatial Autocorrelation: Moran's I (Spatial Statistics) works. Retrieved May 14, 2018, from http://resources.esri.com/help/9.3/arcgisengine/java/gp_toolref/spatial_statistics_tools/how_spatial_autocorrelation_colon_moran_s_i_spatial_statistics_works.htm

ESRI. (2005b). How Hot Spot Analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*) works. Retrieved from https://pro.arcgis.com/en/pro-app/latest/tool-reference/spatial-statistics/h-how-hot-spot-analysis-getis-ord-gi-spatial-stati.htm

Freedman, D., Pisani, R., & Purves, R. (2007). Statistics (4th International Student Edition). New York, NY: W. W. Norton & Company.

Getis, A., & Ord, J. K. (1996). Local spatial statistics: An overview. In P. Longley & M. Batty (Eds.), Spatial Analysis: Modeling in A GIS Environment (pp. 261–277). New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons.

Glen, S. (2016). Moran’s I: Definition, Examples. Retrieved from https://www.statisticshowto.com/morans-i/

Hossain, I., & Mullick, A. R. (2020). Cyclone and Bangladesh: A Historical and Environmental Overview from 1582 to 2020. International Medical Journal, 25(6). Retrieved from https://www.seronijihou.com/article/cyclone-and-bangladesh-a-historical-and-environmental-overview-from-1582-to-2020

Hossain, M. Z., Islam, M. T., Sakai, T., & Ishida, M. (2008). Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Rural Infrastructures in Bangladesh. Agricultural Engineering International: CIGR Journal, 10, 1–20. Retrieved from https://cigrjournal.org/index.php/Ejounral/article/view/1036/1029

International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. (2002). Disaster Risk and Sustainable Development: Understanding the Links between Development, Environment and Natural Hazards Leading to Disasters (Background Paper No. 5) . Retrieved from https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/CFEEBC994F3E642AC1256CA2005BD30B-isdr-natural-dec01.pdf

Islam, M. T., Hossain, M. Z., & Ishida, M. (2011). Trends Analyses for Several Factors Affected by Tropical Cyclones. American Journal of Environmental Sciences, 7(3), 200–206. https://doi.org/10.3844/ajessp.2011.200.206

Islam, T., & Peterson, R. E. (2009). Climatology of landfalling tropical cyclones in Bangladesh 1877–2003. Natural Hazards, 48(1), 115–135. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9252-4

Karim, M. F., & Mimura, N. (2008). Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on cyclonic storm surge floods in Bangladesh. Global Environmental Change, 18(3), 490–500. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.05.002

Khan, M. N. H., Sattar, M. A., & Farukh, M. A. (2015). Assessment of weather anomalies for severe cyclonic storm AILA in 2009. Bangladesh Journal of Environmental Science, 28, 119–124. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/283352765_ASSESSMENT_OF_WEATHER_ANOMALIES_FOR_SEVERE_CYCLONIC_STORM_AILA_IN_2009

Khatun, M. A., Rashid, M. B., & Hygen, H. O. (2016). Climate of Bangladesh (MET report No. 08/2016). Norwegian Meteorological Institute. http://met-xpprod.customer.enonic.io/publikasjoner/met-report/met-report-2016

Kumar, A., Done, J., Dudhia, J., & Niyogi, D. (2011). Simulations of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal with a high-resolution model: sensitivity to large-scale boundary forcing. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 114(3), 123–137. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-011-0161-9

Morgan, J. R., Verlaan, P. A., & Balakrishna, S. (2009). Bay of Bengal. In Encyclopaedia Britannica. Retrieved from https://www.britannica.com/place/Port-Blair

O’Hare, G. (2001). Hurricane 07B in the Godavari Delta, Andhra Pradesh, India: vulnerability, mitigation and the spatial impact. Geographical Journal, 167(1), 23–38. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3060336

Parvin, G. A., Sakamoto, M., Shaw, R., Nakagawa, H., & Sadik, M. S. (2019). Evacuation scenarios of cyclone Aila in Bangladesh: Investigating the factors influencing evacuation decision and destination. Progress in Disaster Science, 2, 100032. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2019.100032

Program Development Office for Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan. (2005). Investment and Financing Strategy for Coastal Zone Development in Bangladesh. Water Resources Planning Organization, Ministry of Water Resources, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh. Retrieved from http://old.warpo.gov.bd/index.php/home/iczmp

Quiroga, C. A., Singh, V. P., & Iyengar, S. S. (1996). Spatial Data Characteristics. In V. P. Singh & M. Fiorentino (Eds.), Water Science and Technology Library: Vol 26. Geographical Information Systems in Hydrology (pp. 65–89). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8745-7_4

Siddique, A. K., & Eusof, A. (1987). Cyclone Deaths in Bangladesh, May 1985: Who Was At Risk. Tropical and Geographical Medicine, 39(1), 3–8. Retrieved from https://europepmc.org/article/med/3603688

Singh, O. P. (2007). Long-term trends in the frequency of severe cyclones of Bay of Bengal: Observations and simulations. Mausam, 58(1), 59–66. https://doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v58i1.1131

Songchitruksa, P., & Zeng, X. (2010). Getis–Ord Spatial Statistics to Identify Hot Spots by Using Incident Management Data. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2165(1), 42–51. https://doi.org/10.3141/2165-05

Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization. (2019). Atmospheric Research Division [Data set]. SPARRSO. http://www.sparrso.gov.bd/site/page/0bea3e61-305f-4430-885f-0aaabc835986/-

Taylor, R. (1990). Interpretation of the Correlation Coefficient: A Basic Review. Journal of Diagnostic Medical Sonography, 6(1), 35–39. https://doi.org/10.1177/875647939000600106

Tobler, W. R. (1970). A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region. Economic Geography, 46, 234–240. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/stable/143141?origin=JSTOR-pdf&seq=1

United States Geological Survey. (2020). USGS Scientists Work on Four Tropical Cyclones at Once. Retrieved from https://www.usgs.gov/news/usgs-scientists-work-four-tropical-cyclones-once

World Bank. (2020). Population density (people per sq. km of land area). Retrieved June, 2020 from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.POP.DNST

Downloads

Published

2021-12-20

How to Cite

Hafsa, B., Ahmed, R., & Kumar, R. (2021). SPATIO-TEMPORAL PATTERN OF TROPICAL CYCLONES: THE CASE OF CYCLONES OF THE BAY OF BENGAL. Journal of the Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić” SASA, 71(3), 213–229. https://doi.org/10.2298/IJGI2103213H

Issue

Vol. 71 No. 3 (2021): Journal of the Geographical Institute "Jovan Cvijić" SASA

Section

Original scientific article

License

Copyright (c) 2021 Journal of the Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić” SASA

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.