THE ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION (AMO) AND THE FOREST FIRES IN FRANCE IN THE PERIOD 1980–2014

Authors

  • Milan Milenković Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić” SASA, Belgrade, Serbia
  • Vladan Ducić University of Belgrade, Faculty of Geography, Belgrade, Serbia
  • Dragan Burić Institute of Hydrometeorology and Seismology of Montenegro, Podgorica, Montenegro/University of Montenegro, Faculty of Philosophy, Nikšić, Montenegro
  • Božidar Lazić University of Belgrade, Faculty of Geography, Belgrade, Serbia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.2298/IJGI1601035M

Keywords:

AMO, forest fires, burned area, France

Abstract

The study examines the connection between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the forest fires (the annual number of fires, the annual burned area and the average burned area per fire) in France in the period 1980–2014. In order to determine the strength of the correlation connection Pearson correlation coefficient (R) was used. Monthly, seasonal and annual values of AMO were used in calculations, and one year phase shift was performed (the values for the previous year were used). In burned area the highest values of R on the monthly level were recorded for April (-0.474) and January (-0.470), and on the seasonal level for winter (-0.459) and spring (-0.447). These values are statistically significant at the level of p≤0.01. By phase shifting the highest level of correlation was obtained for the autumn (-0.489). In the average burned area per fire on a monthly level the highest value of R was for January (-0.522), and on seasonal for winter (-0.506). By phase shifting the highest value of R was obtained for autumn (-0.522). In the number of fires the highest values were recorded by phase shifting for September (-0.382) and autumn (-0.337). All R values recorded during the study had a negative sign (the correlation is antiphase). In addition, downward trends were determined for all three examined indicators of forest fires in the researched period (1980–2014). Results of the research could be used as a basis for the long-term forecast of the risk of forest fires, and the approach used in the research could be applied for the other areas of the world. However, the more detailed research of the effects of other teleconnections are necessary.

Article metrics

References

Beverly, J. L., Flannigan, M. D., Stocks, B. J., Bothwell, P. (2011). The association between Northern Hemisphere climate patterns and interannual variability in Canadian wildfire activity. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 41(11), 2193–2201.

Boberg, F., & Lundstedt, H. (2002). Solar wind variations related to fluctuations of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters, 29(15), 13-1–13-4.

Boberg, F., & Lundstedt, H. (2003). Solar wind electric field modulation of the NAO: A correlation analysis in the lower atmosphere. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(15), SSC 8-1 – 8-4.

Enfield, D. B., Mestas-Nunez, A. M., & Trimble, P. J. (2001). The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. Geophysical Research Letters, 28(10), 2077–2080.

Griffies, S. M., & Bryan, K. (1997). Predictability of North Atlantic multidecadal climate variability. Science, 275(5297), 181–184.

Hu, Q., Feng, S., & Oglesby, R. J. (2011). Variations in North American summer precipitation driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Journal of Climate, 24(21), 5555–5570.

Kitzberger, T., Brown, P. M., Heyerdahl, E. K., Swetnam, T. W. & Veblen, T. T. (2007). Contingent Pacific-Atlantic Ocean influence on multicentury wildfire synchrony over western North America. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104(2), 543–548

Knudsen, M. F., Jacobsen, B. H., Seidenkrantz, M.-S., & Olsen, J. (2014). Evidence for external forcing of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since termination of the Little Ice Age. Nature Communications, 5 Article number 3323.

McCabe, G. J., Palecki, M. A., & Betancourt, J. L. (2004). Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 101(12), 4136–4141.

Мilеnkоvić, М., & Bаrоvić, G. (2015). Аtlаntskа višеdеcеniјskа оscilаciја (АМО) i pоžаri vеgеtаciје u Sјеdinjеnim Аmеričkim Držаvаmа. Zbоrnik rаdоvа: 4. Srpski kоngrеs gеоgrаfа, knjigа 1, (str. 137–142). Beograd: Univerzitet u Beogradu, Geografski fakultet; Srpsko geografsko društvo.

Mo, K. C., Schemm, J. E., & Yoo, S.-H. (2009). Influence of ENSO and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on drought over the United States. Journal of Climate, 22(22), 5962–5982.

Nigam, S., Guan, B., & Ruiz-Barradas, A. (2011). Key role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in 20th century drought and wet periods over the Great Plains. Geophysical Research Letters, 38(16), L16713.

Radovanović, M., Vyklyuk, Y., Jovanović, A., Vuković, D., Milenković, M., Stevančević, M., & Matsiuk, N. (2013). Examination of the correlations between forest fires and solar activity using Hurst index. Journal of the Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić” SASA, 63(3), 23-32.

Radovanović, M. M., Pavlović, T. M., Stanojević, G. B., Milanović, M. M., Pavlović, M. A., Radivojević, A. R. (2014). The influence of solar activities on occurrence of the forest fires in south Europe. Thermal Science, 19(2), 435–446.

Radovanović, M. M., Vyklyk, Y., Malinović-Milićević, B. S., Jakovljević, M. D., Pecelj, R. M. (2014). Modelling of forest fires time evolution in the USA on the basis of long term variations and dynamics of the temperature of the solar wind protons. Thermal Science, 19 (Suppl. 2), S437–S444.

Radovanović, M. M., Pavlović, T. M., Stanojević, G. B., Milanović, M. M., Pavlović, M. A., & Radivojević, A. R. (2015). The influence of solar activities on occurrence of the forest fires in South Europe. Thermal Science, 9(2), 435-446.

Radovanović, M. M., Vyklyuk, Y., Milenković, M., Vuković, D. B., & Matsiuk, N. (2015). Application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy interference system models for prediction of forest fires in the usa on the basis of solar activity. Thermal Science, 19(5), 1649-1661.

Schoennagel T., Veblen T. T., Kulakowski D., & Holz A. (2007). Multidecadal climate variability and climate interactions affect subalpine fire occurrence, western Colorado (USA). Ecology, 88, 2891–2902

Wyatt, M. G., Kravtsov, S., & Tsonis, A. A. (2012). Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere’s climate variability. Climate Dynamics, 38(5–6), 929–949.

http://forest.jrc.ec.europa.eu/effis/reports/annual-fire-reports/

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation//amon.us.long.data

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data

Downloads

Published

2016-04-30

How to Cite

Milenković, M., Ducić, V., Burić, D., & Lazić, B. (2016). THE ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION (AMO) AND THE FOREST FIRES IN FRANCE IN THE PERIOD 1980–2014. Journal of the Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić” SASA, 66(1), 35–44. https://doi.org/10.2298/IJGI1601035M