FOREST FIRES IN PORTUGAL — THE CONNECTION WITH THE ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION (AMO)

Milan Milenković; Anatoly Yamashkin; Vladan Ducić; Violeta Babić; Zoran Govedar

doi:10.2298/IJGI1701027M

Authors

Milan Milenković Geographical Institute ''Jovan Cvijić'' SASA
Anatoly Yamashkin Ogarev Mordovia State University, Saransk, Russia
Vladan Ducić Geografski fakultet, Univerzitet u Beogradu, Srbija
Violeta Babić Šumarski fakultet Univerziteta u Beogradu, Srbija
Zoran Govedar Šumarski fakultet, Univerzitet u Banjoj Luci, Bosna i Hercegovina

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.2298/IJGI1701027M

Keywords:

forest fires, burned area, AMO, Portugal,

Abstract

The data on forest fires in Portugal in the period 1980–2015 were used in the research: the annual number of forest fires, the annual burned area and the average burned area per fire. Increasing trend of the annual number of forest fires (statistically significant at p≤0.01), non-significant increasing trend of the annual burned area and decreasing trend of the average burned area per fire (statistically significant at p≤0.01) were recorded. Portugal is the most endangered country by forest fires in comparison with the other European countries. During the research period, fires in Portugal covered 23.6% of the total burned area in five the most affected European countries (Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece). In the research of the connection between forest fires and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Pearson correlation coefficient (R) was used. Monthly, seasonal and annual values of the AMO index were used in calculations. All R values recorded for the annual number of fires were positive and statistically significant at p≤0.01. The highest values were recorded for August (0.543) and for summer (0.525). With the annual burned area all R values were also positive and the highest one on the seasonal level was for summer (0.359). With the average burned area per fire all R values were negative (−0.428 was recorded for winter). The results of the research could be applied in the fire danger forecast for periods of several months. Other climate indices should also be considered in future research.

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http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data

https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=34510